A pharmaceutical company wanted to in-license a phase I molecule and wanted to estimate its future value and take decision, whether to in-license the molecule at current offered price or not. Approach: A detail study of molecule and its therapy area of development was undertaken to understand disease landscape and current market players. In-order to identify futuristic events an in-depth research related to upcoming molecules, epidemiological changes, pricing and treatment patterns was conducted. These inputs were further validated through primary research with KOLs, physicians and regulatory bodies, primarily to understand expected quantitative impact of future events. Once all required information was available, a robust macro enabled excel based forecast model was developed, with future trends in epidemiology, pricing, patient numbers and upcoming molecules as inputs. These quantitative inputs were derived using benchmarking studies and analogue analysis and were applied at appropriate step within the forecast model. Based on trial and clinical data analysis of the molecule of interest, primary research and analogue analysis studies, potential market share was estimated in next 10 years. These all when entered into the forecast provided potential revenue of the molecule that was being evaluated for in-licensing.
Outcome:The results of the model showed that asking price for the molecule was too high as compared to its expected revenue in next 10 year, thus pharmaceutical company did not pursue buying that molecule. When finally the molecule got launched, its revenues were quite in line as predicted by our model, thus saving the pharmaceutical company from a loss making deal. About Cliniminds: Cliniminds offers professional job linked programs in pharma business analytics, clinical trials, pharmacovigilance and other health science domains. Programs are designed in line with industry requirements. For more information, visit our website – www.cliniminds.com or call at +91 9810068241
